Primary: Winners and Losers

by lewwaters

I VotedAll ballots have been counted and the election department is reporting a final tally of who remains to move ahead to the general election. Nothing has actually changed from early results other than in the 17th Legislative District Senate race where Lynda Wilson pulled ahead of Tim Probst by a razor thin margin.

That race alone should tell you all how important single votes can be as Lynda finishes a scant 50 votes ahead of Probst.

And if you recall, this same Senate seat was won by Don Benton in 2012 by a mere 74 votes over Tim Probst who initially felt he had it in the bag then.

In his usual bluster, Probst felt he had a sure thing this time as well, but once again came in second by a handful of votes. Time will tell if that carries forward in the general or not.

Moving on, it is no surprise to see a Democrat sweep in the 49th Legislative District leaving Lewis Gerhardt, the lone Republican to advance, with little chance against incumbent State Senator, Annette Cleveland.

Both House seats have only Democrat candidates with Sharon Wylie facing little opposition from challenger, Kaitlyn Beck for Pos. 1.

Pos. 2, vacated by long term Democrat Jim Moeller who is challenging incumbent Republican Jaime Herrera Beutler for the 3rd Congressional District, also sees two Democrats vying for the open seat.

First term Vancouver City Council Member Alishia Topper who finished behind district hopping former 17th Legislative District Rep. Monica Stonier who was soundly defeated for reelection after one term in the house by Lynda Wilson.

It’s anybody’s guess at this time which one will win.

We will likely see all three incumbent Republicans easily returned to their offices in the 18th Legislative District, a safe district for Republicans. Sen. Ann Rivers, Rep. Brian Vick and Rep. Liz Pike all finished strong against challenges by Democrats Eric. Holt, Justin Oberg and Kathy Gillespie.

Moving on to the 17th Legislative District, we covered the Senate race above that saw Lynda Wilson win by a scant 50 votes ahead of Tim Probst. Lynda faces more nasty attacks from Democrats and Probst, likely even nastier than what was seen in his 2012 defeat. Democrats have wanted this seat for several years and see Sen. Benton’s retirement as an easy grab.

Obviously, they underestimate Lynda Wilson who is no doubt going to give them a run for their money.

Pos. 1 in the 17th is open currently due to Lynda Wilson vacating the seat to run to fill the seat in the Senate. The top two candidates are Republican Vicki Kraft and Independent Democrat, Sam Kim, who initially announced as a Republican only to file as an Independent Democrat much later.

Ordinarily I’d call this a safe seat for the Republicans, but rumor has it that Kraft’s linkage to controversial County Councilor David Madore and some of the more bombastic leaders from within the Clark County Republican Party may jeopardize her chances, unless she can show distance between herself and them.

Republican Paul Harris will likely best his Democrat challenger, Martin Hash. Harris enjoys the advantage of incumbency against Hash, a super intelligent and educated man that ran once before. Hash is known for not toeing the Democrat Party line which may see some Democrats shy away from him.

I must admit I completely misread the race for County Council District Four that saw Republican Eileen Quiring finish well ahead of opponents, Democrat Roman Battan and Republican Jennifer McDaniel. Seeing McDaniel finish last caught me completely off guard.

We end up seeing Quiring, a former Oregon Legislator now facing off against Democrat Battan who’s never held public office. Don’t get me wrong here, I have nothing against Battan, but unfortunately for him, District Four is largely within the 18th Legislative District that is a safe district for Republicans.

Can Battan do it? We’ll see come November as moderate Republicans aren’t too pleased over Quiring’s connections to Madore.

For District Three, County Council, controversial Councilor David Madore being soundly defeated by challengers Tanisha Harris (Democrat) and John Blom (Republican) is no surprise. We have seen unprecedented media opposition to Madore as he continued with misstep after misstep, attacking citizens, fellow councilors and staff on social media.

I have it on good authority that the Clark County Republican Party is very displeased seeing Republican Blom besting Madore and have been discussing him negatively. I’m not at liberty to reveal much just yet, but it does seem to be more foul air coming from that direction, yet again.

We also see Madore announcing last evening on his facebook page, “Stay tuned for some very good news (around September 1st) that will breathe new life into our community.”

Exactly what is meant is not said, but there have been strong rumors of him starting up an alternative media site. That would fit since in June 2015 he approached me in what I took as an effort to buy me off, “needed one key full time media expert with the right make up to head it up and build the team” and stating that his former media site, had been “repurposed.”

Even though soundly rejected by “the will of the people,” it looks like he has no intention of fading away.

As said above, Jim Moeller vacated his safe 49th Legislative District seat to oppose incumbent 3rd Congressional District Representative, Jaime Herrera Beutler. Jaime came out with more than twice the votes Moeller received. In fact, she received a significant number of votes ahead of all of the votes cast for all five of the Democrat challengers, Jaime being the lone Republican running.

This very well may mark the end of Jim Moeller’s political career as he seems unaware that the boundaries for the district were redrawn to favor Republicans in exchange for drawing lines for the newly added 10th Legislative District to favor Democrats after the 2010 census.

Had Jim remained in the 49th I have no doubt he would once again easily have won is seat as the 49th is one of the more Liberal districts in the state. But, he chose to reach higher and we will see what happens in November.

The above is my assessment of the primary and this early out might not mean very much for November. Things are always subject to change as we gear up and move towards the general election.

But as I said initially, your vote matters and is important to what happens. Tim Probst on election night was grinning ear to ear as the initial county had him 212 votes ahead that saw him doing his happy dance and declaring “We’ve just seen unity and love for one another beat divisiveness and anger. We’ve just seen the regular people beat the Big Money.”

In the end, he finished 50 votes behind as the rest of the ballots coming in by mail were counted.

Your vote does matter. But, only if you cast it.

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10 Comments to “Primary: Winners and Losers”

  1. “We’ve just seen the regular people beat the Big Money.”

    Probst must have a very strange conception of what “big money” is. Wilson isn’t exactly loaded. At any rate, since his declaration turned out to be false does that mean that “big money beat the regular people”? I like Tim and have voted for him in the past, but he’s turning out to be a bit of a weenie.

  2. Madore was faced with almost daily attacks from the Columbian (no surprise), which certainly would have some negatives when low-information voters didn’t dig for better sources of information. Madore also has made plenty of errors during his term on the County Commission/Council. Between the re-drawn districts and the many errors, it’s not a huge surprise that Madore lost out.

    However, whatever dislike Madore has developed, that doesn’t extend to the reform minded politicians who “are associated with Madore.” Indeed, I took that as more of a positive matter than a negative, despite the disappointment I have had with Madore’s performance in office.

    I’m afraid that “moderate” Republicans can also be easily described as “lacking a philosophy” that supports individual freedom and small government.

    It’s only natural that those who seek political office, even “conservatives” tend to think in terms of the “good” that government can do. Sadly, all that government is truly effective at is squandering tax dollars. The less government “does” for us, the better off we are. Those who are “associated with Madore” are more likely to understand that almost all the economic and social problems we have are due to government trying to “help” … but I don’t want their “help.”

  3. As an elected official, Probst has always come across as deceptive and dishonest to me.

    He should talk about where his “big money” comes from

  4. Madore brought on most of those attacks by his own actions. As for those associated with Madore, that will be in the hands of voters on those districts. In the 49th, where I live, Democrats rule and what candidates there are aren’t associated with him, save maybe Gerhardt who doesn’t stand a chance in this heavy liberal district.

    Regardless, Madore dug his own hole and associations have mattered in the past.

    But none of it excuses what I have heard coming from officials of the CCGOP directed towards John Blom.

    It seems the cries of RINO’s helping Democrats get elected just might apply more to them than any of the “moderates.”

    Some interesting things might be coming out in the near future 😉

  5. Friend’s comment reminds me of the famous Reagan warning “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are, ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.'”

    I don’t know how many times the government has to prove its incompetence before people finally get a clue. If anyone ever paid attention to the US Constitution government would be very limited in its scope.

  6. Yes, government must be limited and we have never achieved a perfect balance. Liberals want more control while some in the GOP today seem to desire anarchy.

    I also recall Reagan saying, addressing the similarities between Republicans and Libertarians, “I believe there are legitimate government functions. There is a legitimate need in an orderly society for some government to maintain freedom or we will have tyranny by individuals. The strongest man on the block will run the neighborhood. We have government to insure that we don’t each one of us have to carry a club to defend ourselves.”

    Inside Ronald Reagan

    Will we ever achieve a proper balance? I have my doubts.

  7. I agree. I appreciate clean drinking water for example. Emergency services (police, fire, etc.), roads (not particularly construction and maintenance, but certainly planning and scheduling), etc. – these are all best performed by the government.

  8. I don’t know who or what Reagan was referring to, but Libertarian is decidedly different than Anarchist.

    The basic Libertarian premise is that individuals are born with an inherent right to pursue one’s own life, and includes one’s right of private property ownership. The most basic and necessary function of government is to protect those rights from being transgressed against by others, through law and law enforcement. This sentiment is expressed in the second paragraph of the American Declaration of Independence.

    Anarchists do not believe in government, and hence do not believe in private property, which actually aligns them with Communists not Libertarians.

  9. My guess would be he might have been referring to those that entered first the Libertarian Party, masquerading as Libertarians only to now infiltrate the Republican Party and masquerade as conservatives.

  10. Thanks for the update Lew.. Your usually more fair and honest than LouBe.

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